FUTURE CHANGES IN SEASONAL-MEAN PRECIPITATION OVER WEST AFRICA UNDER THE REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.371.1610Keywords:
West Africa, Precipitation, Climate Change Projections, NorESM1-M, RCPsAbstract
This study analysed the future changes in seasonal-mean precipitation over West Africa during the mid (2040-2065) twenty first century using the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1-M). The NorESM1-M has ~1.89° x 2.5° horizontal atmospheric resolution and 26 vertical levels. The skill of the model in reproducing the observed seasonal-mean precipitation distribution was evaluated for the historical period (1980-2005) using satellite derived precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Using three possible future levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations - the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 2.6Wm-2, 4.5Wm-2 and 8.5 Wm-2, we calculated the projected changes in seasonal-mean precipitation over West Africa for the mid-twenty first century. The projected changes show that the transition to dry season (September-October-November) will experience the highest amounts of increase. Overall, RCP 4.5 projects higher levels of precipitation change compared to the other two RCPs. This points to a non-linear effect of intensified greenhouse forcing on precipitation over West Africa; suggesting that after a particular level of greenhouse gas concentrations further increase may have little or no effect on the regions precipitation.
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