DETERMINATION OF BASIN-SPECIFIC FREQUENCY FACTOR FOR ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN HADEJIA JAMARE RIVER BASIN NIGERIA

AMINU OHUEYI AHMED; Salisu Dan'azumi; Abdullahi Umar; Shamsuddeen Jumande Mohammad

doi:10.4314/njt.v44i1.15

Authors

A. O. Ahmed Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria, and Department of Civil Engineering, Bayero University Kano, Nigeria
S. Dan’azumi Department of Civil Engineering, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, KSA, and Department of Civil Engineering, Bayero University Kano, Nigeria
A. Umar Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
S. J. Mohammad Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v44i1.15

Keywords:

Frequency factor, Outlier, Hershfield, Probable Maximum Precipitation, Extreme Rainfall, Spillway Design

Abstract

Extreme rainfall events pose significant challenges to the design of flood control infrastructure, especially spillways. This study evaluates three scenarios for estimating the frequency factor, a vital component of the Hershfield method of determining probable maximum precipitation (PMP). The study examines the impact of multiple outliers on frequency factor estimation through three scenarios. The study employed the Hershfield procedure in the derivation. Daily annual maximum rainfall data was collected from three stations (Kano, Bauchi and Dutse). The data was subjected to outlier checks using the box and whisker plot for simplicity and easy visualization. The results were analyzed using the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The ANOVA results clearly showed the number of outliers and the selection of the highest observed daily rainfall depth () have a significant effect on the frequency factor. The frequency factor obtained ranges from 2.1 to 4.88. Among the three Scenarios, Scenario 2 provided a more reliable estimate due to its ability to account for extreme outliers effectively. The results underscore the importance of considering outliers in hydrologic analysis to avoid underestimating risks in flood-prone areas. This ensures that infrastructure is better equipped to withstand rare, high-magnitude rainfall events, reducing the risk of catastrophic failures.

Author Biographies

A. O. Ahmed, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria, and Department of Civil Engineering, Bayero University Kano, Nigeria

Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria-Nigeria.

Lecturer 1
S. Dan’azumi, Department of Civil Engineering, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, KSA, and Department of Civil Engineering, Bayero University Kano, Nigeria

Department of Civil Engineering, Bayero University Kano

Professor
A. Umar, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria

Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria

Lecturer 1
S. J. Mohammad, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria

Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria

Lecturer 1

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