MINIMUM THRESHOLDS OF MONTE CARLO CYCLES FOR NIGERIAN EMPIRICAL–MECHANISTIC PAVEMENT ANALYSIS AND DESIGN SYSTEM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.313.560Keywords:
pavement distress, fatigue, rutting, mechanistic-empirical, Monte CarloAbstract
Monte Carlo simulation has proven to be an effective means of incorporating reliability analysis into the Mechanistic-Empirical (M-E) design process for flexible pavements. Nigerian Empirical–Mechanistic Pavement Analysis and Design System procedure for Nigeria Environments has been proposed. This work aimed at providing most appropriate number of Monte Carlo simulation cycles that should be adopted for used to provide enough sufficient repeatability for damage reliability relationship in the Nigerian environments. Two selected fatigue distress models and a selected rutting distress models were evaluated for Nigerian environment. It was observed that Monte Carlo simulation cycle of 2, 500 thresholds were enough to be used to provide sufficient repeatability for damage reliability relationship and that axle weight has an overwhelming effect on the output variability as an increase in applied load was highly noticed in the reliability values.
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