EVALUATION OF SOME FLOOD PREDICTION MODELS FOR THREE FLOW GAUGING STATIONS IN UPPER BENUE RIVER BASIN IN NIGERIA – PART 1

Abstract

The annual maximum series of flow discharge  data  for three flow gauging stations  located  at River Donga at Manya,, River Donga at Donga and River Bantaji at Suntai within Upper Benue River Basin in Nigeria were fitted each  with three probability distribution  models namely ;Log normal, Extreme value Type 1 and Log Pearson Type III. The model results were subjected to four specific measures of error in prediction (i.e., RMSE, RRMSE, CC and MAE) and a scoring scheme on the basis of which best fit model for each station was selected.  The best fit probability distribution models for the stations are Extreme value Type 1 (EV-I), Log Pearson Type III and Log normal for the stations at River Donga at Manya, River Donga at Donga and River Bantaji at Suntai   respectively. The models can provide estimates of flood quantiles for planning, design, construction and operation of water resources projects within the river systems.