A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMAND IN NIGERIA

Authors

  • IK Okakwu DEPT. OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING, UNIV. OF BENIN, BENIN CITY, EDO STATE, NIGERIA
  • ES Oluwasogo DEPT. OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGR, KWARA STATE UNIV., MALETE, KWARA STATE, NIGERIA
  • AE Ibhaze DEPT. OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGR, UNIV. OF LAGOS, AKOKA, LAGOS, LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA.
  • AL Imoize DEPT. OF ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGR, UNIV. OF LAGOS, AKOKA, LAGOS, LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA.

Keywords:

Forecasting, Electric load demand, Harvey model, Autoregressive model, Moving Average model, Time Series model, Exponential Smoothing model, Theil Inequality Coefficient.

Abstract

The complexity of the Nigerian Power Sector due to industry deregulation and abrupt variations in electricity demand and the ever increasing population density requires urgent research attention and industry action. Getting an accurate model to fit the energy demand pattern has become imperative and the need for an appropriate model cannot be overemphasized. This article therefore presents a comparative study on time series modelling of average and peak load forecasting in Nigeria. Data from the National Control Center (NCC), Oshogbo was harvested and analyzed using Harvey, Autoregressive, Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Time Series Models while using R-Statistics for model simulation. The comparative performance showed that the Harvey Model best predicted load demand with least values of 111.0188 Root Mean Squared Error, (RMSE), 9.1095 Mean Absolute Error (MAE), 2.3579 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and 0.0156 Theil Inequality Coefficient (TIC) for average load and 117.4345 RMSE, 10.183 MAE, 17.01 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and 0.015 TIC for peak load.

 

http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v38i2.24

Downloads

Published

2019-03-27

Issue

Vol. 38 No. 2 (2019): NIGERIAN JOURNAL OF TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 38, NO. 2, APRIL 2019

Section

Computer, Telecommunications, Software, Electrical & Electronics Engineering

License

The contents of the articles are the sole opinion of the author(s) and not of NIJOTECH.

NIJOTECH allows open access for distribution of the published articles in any media so long as whole (not part) of articles are distributed.

A copyright and statement of originality documents will need to be filled out clearly and signed prior to publication of an accepted article. The Copyright form can be downloaded from http://nijotech.com/downloads/COPYRIGHT%20FORM.pdf while the Statement of Originality is in http://nijotech.com/downloads/Statement%20of%20Originality.pdf

 

For articles that were developed from funded research, a clear acknowledgement of such support should be mentioned in the article with relevant references. Authors are expected to provide complete information on the sponsorship and intellectual property rights of the article together with all exceptions.

 

It is forbidden to publish the same research report in more than one journal.

How to Cite

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING ENERGY DEMAND IN NIGERIA. (2019). Nigerian Journal of Technology, 38(2), 465-469. https://nijotech.com/index.php/nijotech/article/view/1991