Assessment of the Rainfall Exceedance in Nigeria
Keywords:Extreme precipitation, variability, drought, flood, crop yield, climate extremes
This study assessed rainfall extremes for agricultural overview in Nigeria using trend analysis and probability of exceedance expressed as normal for an average at 50% exceedance, wet for greater than average 20% exceedance and dry for lower than average 80% exceedance. The annual rainfall trend indicated variability in the six geopolitical regions with North-East having the lowest range and South-South area with highest. The average monthly rainfall exceedance showed that all part of the Nigeria experienced rainfall more than 100 mm at all levels of probability. The rainfall exceedance time series indicated extremes as well as critical values of 20% and 80% exceedance conditions at many stations during the study period. The critical values of exceedances in dry occurrences are in short-time scales in Northern region while, wet exceedances occurrences for long time scales in South-East, South-West, North-Central and North-West. The study revealed periods of extreme rainfall of significant magnitude susceptible to crop failure in the different regions if reliable cropping management plans is not put in place.
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